To liberate territory, Ukraine should smash fortified Russian defenses

They do it by hand. At evening.

“Everybody’s palms shake,” mentioned the 42-year-old commander of engineers within the 1st Tank Brigade, whom The Washington Submit is figuring out solely by his name signal, Klimat, for safety causes.

Klimat mentioned this type of mine-clearing work has been ongoing for weeks, however he declined to explain exact areas or strategies used to deactivate the mines. As soon as a path has been cleared, he mentioned, indicators are arrange — typically lighted, with the beams dealing with away from Russian positions — to point out a path ahead.

That’s simply step one. Then comes the struggle towards the Russians.

Exactly the place it would begin is unimaginable to know. However hypothesis has centered closely on the Zaporizhzhia area as a result of it’s a strategic lifeline for Russia’s occupation. If Ukraine pushes south by way of the area, it might lower off the “land bridge” connecting occupied Crimea with mainland Russia.

With the Kremlin hellbent on maintaining the land it has stolen in Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces have ripped it aside, remodeling enormous expanses of once-sleepy agricultural fields right into a veritable fortress with webs of trenches and different obstacles that may be seen from house.

To retake territory and oust the Russians, the Ukrainians should punch by way of these fortifications. That requires particular coaching and tools in addition to cautious reconnaissance to discover a weak spot — in all probability certainly one of quite a lot of causes the long-awaited counteroffensive has not began but.

Serhii Matveichuk, a colonel in Ukraine’s Directorate of Engineer Troops, advised The Washington Submit that Russia had created a “large system of engineering boundaries” that pose a “severe impediment to the mobility of troops.”

The target of Russia’s monumental fortification undertaking is to sluggish a possible assault and to channel any Ukrainian forces that break by way of right into a slender space. This is able to permit Russia’s reserves to regroup and provides its artillery time to strike the attackers, doubtlessly ending the counteroffensive earlier than it actually begins.

If it really works, it could possibly be a massacre. “It’s lots like World Warfare I,” mentioned Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps officer and protection knowledgeable with the Middle for Strategic & Worldwide Research, evaluating it to the bloody stalemate of trench warfare in that battle over a century in the past. “If the Russians struggle laborious, it’ll be robust to interrupt by way of.”

Ukrainian officers declined to debate the specifics of any plan to push by way of Russian fortifications, terrified of releasing operational data that could possibly be utilized by Russia. Matveichuk and different Ukrainian officers spoke to The Submit provided that their areas not be revealed.

Ukrainian engineers and sappers are already at work, in some circumstances utilizing new tools designed to pierce these types of defenses, together with specifically modified autos primarily based on the famed Leopard 2 German battle tank.

However some analysts say that whereas Kyiv’s Western backers have centered on missiles, armored autos and ammunition, they haven’t dedicated the appropriate assist to interrupt by way of Russia’s defenses. Matveichuk mentioned it was “problematic” that the Ukrainian military was wanting engineering tanks and different such instruments.

Based on Ukrainian troopers, Russia lays its mines in a sample: one line of antitank mines, a line of antipersonnel traces alongside booby traps, after which one other line of antitank mines. Drones can be utilized to identify the antitank mines, troopers say, however antipersonnel mines are more durable to search out.

As soon as the Ukrainians are by way of their very own traces and in potential sight of Russian forces, breaking by way of these minefields usually requires much less stealth and extra velocity.

In principle, artillery fireplace can explode mines from afar. However artillery rounds are in restricted provide, and Ukrainian troopers mentioned it was unimaginable to make certain that all of the mines in an space are destroyed.

As a substitute, fashionable militaries use specifically designed tools like mechanized mine clearers, engineering tanks and line fees, that are units that use explosives linked to a line to clear a chosen space of mines.

Ukraine has its personal mine clearers, such because the UR-77 Meteorit, a Soviet-designed car that makes use of the identical chassis because the outdated 2S1 howitzer. This closely armored car makes use of built-in line fees to clear areas as much as 300 toes forward of it. It’s also utilized by the Russian military.

Western nations have additionally despatched some fashionable engineering tanks, together with Leopard 2R mine-clearing tanks provided by Finland, that may plow by way of minefields. These autos, developed by Germany, are primarily based on the chassis of the well-known battle tank and use closely armored mine plows to detonate the mines of their path.

Matveichuk declined to debate what equipment could be utilized in a counteroffensive as a result of disclosures might lead to “the enemy creating countermeasures.” Nevertheless, he famous that heavy engineering tanks just like the Leopard 2R had been notably helpful as they can’t solely clear mines and in addition push by way of different obstacles like fences and lumps.

However the best choice for this work — the M1150 Assault Breacher Car, primarily based on the chassis of the American-made M1 Abrams battle tank — isn’t out there to Ukraine, Matveichuk mentioned. Washington has been urged to ship them however has not carried out so.

“Regardless of the numerous quantity of weapons supplied to Ukraine to repel the aggressor’s assault, the problematic situation is the supply of engineering items with engineering tanks” and different applied sciences, Matveichuk wrote.

The US has repeatedly listed “mine clearing tools” in its army assist for Ukraine, with out offering particulars. Open-source weapons trackers have noticed the M58 Mine Clearing Line Cost, often known as the MICLIC, within the nation.

Steve Danner, a former U.S. Military engineer who now works as an infrastructure marketing consultant, mentioned different tools could possibly be despatched: He pointed to a sort of U.S.-owned armored digger, the Israeli-developed IDF Caterpillar D9. They had been utilized in Iraq however are actually “simply rusting away” in storage in Kuwait, he mentioned.

“I’m actually nervous that Ukraine isn’t geared up to take care of these intensive obstacles,” Danner mentioned.

Ukrainian troopers are all too conscious that an offensive this 12 months gained’t be so simple as the profitable counterattacks towards Russian forces final fall.

“The enemy is studying from their errors,” mentioned Yuri, a 29-year-old unit commander with the first Tank Brigade who supplied solely his first title for safety causes. “They’re higher ready.”

For Russia, the heavy, soiled work of fortification in Zaporizhzhia turned pressing after Ukraine pushed Moscow’s troops from the northern Kharkiv area and compelled them to retreat east throughout the Dnieper River within the southern Kherson area.

Although the trenches, ditches, minefields and fences are unfold all throughout occupied Ukraine now, Zaporizhzhia has seen the heaviest of the work.

Brady Africk, an open supply analyst who works for the American Enterprise Institute, mentioned that the heavy fortification mirrored the “comparatively flat topography which offers fewer pure obstacles than are current in occupied areas of jap Ukraine” or that the Dnieper River offers in Kherson.

The problem for Russia is making an attempt to guess the place alongside the 600-mile-long entrance Ukraine will mount its assaults, however satellite tv for pc imagery reveals Russia is acutely conscious that Zaporizhzhia could possibly be a spotlight. Strains of fortification had been constructed not solely round Melitopol, a significant metropolis now serving as a Russian logistical hub within the south, but in addition alongside the roads to Crimea and on the peninsula itself.

If Ukrainian forces can discover a path by way of the minefields, they may then want to make use of a method of mixed arms to shortly break by way of.

Trenches should be taken shortly by infantry with the assist of artillery, earlier than hiding Russian troopers can use the dugouts to fireplace antitank missiles, Cancian mentioned. Ukrainian tanks might then push ahead together with engineering equipment, together with bridging autos that permit others to move over ditches and small rivers.

These items should transfer quick. Consultants mentioned even only one small breach within the enemy’s fortifications should be exploited with out hesitation. With Russian defenses stretched alongside the entrance, a quick Ukrainian assault might overwhelm them.

9 Ukrainian brigades have been coaching overseas in latest months. Cancian mentioned a number of of them will in all probability act as “tip of the spear” within the assault.

“Then they will get into the ‘inexperienced fields past,’ as they are saying,” mentioned Cancian, referring to the elusive army prize in World Warfare I trench warfare.

Consultants say that Russia could have at the very least one line of reserves that may rush to the entrance to attempt to lower off a Ukrainian advance. They could nicely have extra.

“There’s lots round Melitopol,” mentioned James Rand, an analyst with the non-public intelligence agency Janes. “The Russians clearly suppose that the Ukrainians are going to return south.”

Rand added that new weapons know-how just like the U.S.-provided Excessive Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and the newer Storm Shadow long-range missile system supplied by Britain will affect the place Russia positions its reserves.

“The Russians are going to have to consider what they transfer again,” mentioned Rand, including that reserves might show to be a “huge juicy goal” for Storm Shadows, which have a variety of as much as 180 miles — placing Melitopol inside attain.

If they will push by way of, Ukraine should as soon as once more lay defenses, and the sappers might be again at work, this time laying mines. Ukraine has used outdated Soviet-developed mines, together with the TM-62 antitank mine.

“We put a blanket on the mines in order that they don’t get chilly,” Klimat, the engineers commander, joked as he confirmed off the mines, which had been saved in an outdated GMZ-3 minelayer close by.

After they lay the mines, they may maintain information, he added, in case they need to discover a method by way of once more.